嚙誹在Wall Street Journal 嚙踝蕭嚙踝蕭嚙磕嚙踝蕭荍嚙篁嚙線嚙踝蕭嚙瑾嚙篇"嚙諛佗蕭"嚙踝蕭嚙踝蕭嚙褕，嚙篌嚙窮嚙諛歹蕭嚙踝蕭嚙豎看，嚙踝蕭嚙瞑嚙踝蕭嚙踝蕭嚙踝蕭嚙踝蕭嚙踝蕭嚙褕佗蕭嚙踝蕭t嚙踝蕭...

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嚙瞌嚙踝蕭:嚙踝蕭嚙踝蕭嚙踝蕭嚙綞2000/12/30. 08:06嚙綞嚙衛穿蕭 嚙踝蕭嚙踝蕭

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嚙踝蕭嚙緘嚙磊:

WRAP: Taiwan Govt Econ Stimulus Plan Met With Skepticism
By KIRBY CHIEN

TAIPEI -- A flurry of year-end moves to boost Taiwan's flagging economy has been met with skepticism by analysts, who see rising difficulties in the coming year.

"There is increasing pressure on the (Taiwan) dollar, labor problems will rise...and there is still no mechanism for facilitating bank mergers," said Norman Lin, a professor of banking at National Chengchi University.

On Friday, the government announced a merger between state-run Taiwan Cooperative Bank and ChinFon Commercial Bank that will be completed within six to 10 months.

However, analysts say the government's efforts to promote consolidation in the overcrowded financial industry still lack key components.

Premier Chang Chun-hsiung announced also on Friday a total of NT$1021 billion in new spending designed to expand public works projects, create 62,000 new jobs and upgrade the island's power grid.

However, the government offered no details of where the funds would come from, and it was unclear if legislative approval was needed. The 2001 budget is still languishing in the opposition-controlled Legislature and lawmaker approval would be needed to raise the cap on government borrowing which has already been reached.

The source of the funds is doubtful, and it is "highly unlikely lawmakers would agree to any new government debt," under the current fiscal constraints, said David Li, an economist at EnTrust Securities in Taipei.

While the government is moving to build a framework to promote financial mergers and acquisitions, many analysts say the government still has no plans - or political will - to deal with the inevitable layoffs that mergers bring.

The high profile merger between three state banks announced at the Ministry of Finance's year-end press conference last year "has gone nowhere...because unions at the three banks have protested," said professor Yin.

The plan to join the Bank of Taiwan, Land Bank of Taiwan and the Central Trust of China has not been abandoned but there are "many problems" to be resolved, conceded an official in the MOF's Bureau of Monetary Affairs.

The most serious problem is how to deal with redundant employees, because it is "impossible to lay off or fire public servants," explained the official.

Moreover, the pressure to reduce costs is forcing many industries, including Taiwan's thriving high-tech companies, to relocate to lower-cost countries in the region, or simply close down. According to the government, Taiwan's November unemployment rate hit a near 15-year high of 3.23% because of the rising number of plant closures.

Labor problems will increase in the coming year as more blue- and white-collar jobs are lost and there are no other alternatives, said Yin.

In fact, many economists say the problem will only worsen as Taiwan moves toward its goal of a "knowledge-based" economy and away from more labor-intensive industries.

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