�o�����e�G
��K......... �p�X�߳������ɥu�^��TIME�e�b�q���x�W���ɬ����Ʊ������z�A���O���֩w�P���������}�H�ΩI�~���ӵ���������|�����ק������͡C
TIME�䤤�峹��j�ճ����󪺷���ƸѤF���y�Ĭ�A�䤤�]�ͨ��|�h���Ҫ�����ұN�Ҫ��Q�q��r�b��a�Q�q���W�����A���O�p�X�߳����o�Ç��I���������C
�p�X�߳��c�N�_�����q�A�N�ϻs�y�S�󪺷s�D�A�~�ߥr���A��b�O�H�����C
�H�U�������½Ķ�M����������p�߳���
_____________________
TIME ���:
TIME (OCTOBER 30, 2000
VOL. 156 NO. 17 )
Give This Guy a Break!
Critics have been too hasty in declaring Chen
Shui-bian's tenure a
failure
By SIN-MING SHAW
Chinese premier Zhu
Rongji once called Chen Shui-bian's presidency a
"joke." Outside China, conventional
wisdom increasingly seems to agree.
Since Chen's election in March,
Taiwan's stock market has plunged by more than
30%, a slide that pundits
say represents a vote of "no
confidence" in the President's abilities.
Chen's approval rating, meanwhile, has fallen to
less than 40%, from a
high of 77%. His Premier, Tang Fei, resigned
after less than half a year
in office.
Chen is taking heat for
everything. The economy is in the
doldrums. A banking crisis is looming as problem
loans pile up.
The delicate relationship with Beijing has
stalled, and no one
can control the Vice President, Annette Lu, who
pokes China in
the eye at every opportunity. (In an official
report, Beijing
recently called the Taiwan situation
"grim.") All of this adds up
to a sense that Chen has squandered the promise
of his election,
an opinion shared, apparently, by his close
adviser, Lee
Yuan-tseh. A Nobel laureate, Lee said recently
that the
President "talked too much without giving
the people a clear
direction where he was going."
So is Chen toast? Is his
presidency a disaster? Not at all. The
slump in Taiwan stocks has more to do with global
worries over
the declining earnings of semiconductor companies
than with
Chen. Taiwan's stock-market index is packed with
technology
stocks; so is NASDAQ in the U.S., which has also
dramatically
declined since March. The market is simply saying
that if
Silicon Valley isn't doing well, neither should
Taiwan's tech
stocks.
On the political front,
it's true that Chen's minority Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) has been slow to get up
to speed. One
reason for that is the Kuomintang (KMT), the
DPP's rival, which
dominates the legislature and has tended to put
partisan interests
above those of the nation. But the DPP's
emergence as Taiwan's
ruling party has already helped heal the most
divisive social and
political wound on the island: the rift between
Fujian-dialect-speaking locals and the
Mandarin-speaking
mainlanders who have dominated local politics for
a
half-century. The topic of schism is no longer in
prominent in
public discourse.
As for the economy,
Taiwan does indeed face serious problems.
But Chen hasn't been idle. In a departure from
past KMT
policies, Chen is promoting bank mergers to help
shore up the
weakest institutions. And he says he will lift
many restrictions
on foreign banks wishing to compete in Taiwan.
Although
capital is still over-regulated, the question is
no longer whether
financial reforms will come, but when and to what
degree.
Chen is waffling on some
economic issues. But his hesitance is
often understandable. Taiwan, like many other
places, is
grappling with a dual economy: one part is old,
inward-looking
and inefficient; the other is new,
know-ledge-intensive and
globally competitive. By letting the New Taiwan
dollar find its
own, lower level and by lifting regulations
governing capital
lows to China, Chen could encourage Old Economy
companies to revive themselves by relocating to
the mainland.
But China isn't making it easy. Beijing recently
said it would
take stock of the political views of potential
investors from
Taiwan, particularly their level of support for
Chen's DPP. The
threat was later quietly dropped, but a sense of
uncertainty had
been sown. The reality is that both sides need
each other. It is
China, not Taiwan, that could face devastating
unemployment
after joining the World Trade Organization.
Is Chen handling the
cross-Strait relationship well? Beijing
clearly does not think so. But by now, even the
mainland's most
stubborn hawks must know that war against Taiwan
is a
non-starter: it's impossible to define victory in
any way that
makes sense.
Chen said recently he
was proud to be a Chinese, a signal to
Beijing that he is willing to be conciliatory.
The communists,
however, apparently want him to genuflect more
unambiguously. China should know that putting a
timetable on
reunification is unwise as long as Taiwan's
people are not ready
for it. Chen knows his constituency better than
Beijing and is
calculating that he needs to proceed slowly. Chen
can do better
at his job, yes, but during his first six months
in office he has
not done badly. In the U.S., Bill Clinton didn't
exactly light up
the scoreboard in his first two years, but his
performance
improved considerably. Give Chen a chance. The
conventional
view about him is simply unfair.
Sin-ming Shaw is a
visiting scholar at the Fairbank
Center for East Asian Research at Harvard
University
__________________________
�P�º���cpchuu��U½Ķ�A�H�κ���kika��U�q���C
TIME
��夤��½�:
�����`�z����ò´¿ºÙ³ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½`�������C�b����ҥ~�A�DzΪ��[�I���G�v���{�P�o�y�ܡC�]���۱q���b�T���W��A�ѥ��^�F30%�A�ۻ{�v�ª��H���o�˪��]�ѥ��^�^�T�N���F�H���ﳯ���󪺯�O��U���H�����C�ﳯ�`���H���׽լd�]�q77%����40%�A�L����F�|���ð¸¦b��¾����b�~�N��¾�F�C
�����Ұ��Ҭ��w�v���޾D�H���f�A�g�٧C�������A�����D���U�ڷU�ӷU�h�ϻȦ�i��v�����ͷ��j�����D�C
�M�_�ʪ��L�����Y�ܱo�i�h�����A�ӵL�ɵL�褣�b��h���ꪺ���`�Χf�q���]�S�H��r���o�F�C�_�ʳ̪�@�����������i�٥x�W���{�p��"�O�H�Q��������"�A�o�@���o�쪺���׬O�����O�F�L�M�ը������o�D�������@�P�������|�ӿաC�������̪��`�θ����o�Ӧh�A�o�S�����H���@�ӲM������V�L�n�����̨��C
���u���O�@�ӥ��N�\�����H�ܡH�L���`�ίu���O�Ӥj�a���ܡH�@�I�]���I�x�W�ѥ����U�^�P���y�b���餽�q���J��֪����Y���j��M�������Y�C�x�W�ѥ������ЩM��ުѫܦ����Y�A���ꪺNASDAQ���Ƥ]�@�ˡANASDAQ�]�@�˶^�o��H�C�ѥ������{�u�O�����F�Y�������{�ä��z�Q�A�x�W���ѥ��]���|�n����h�C
�N�F�v�ӻ��A���ҥN�����ּ��ҥ��D�i�B�ҤW�y�W�o�ܺC�A�䤤�@�Ó�]�O�]�����i�Ҫ��v���̰���Ҥ����b�ߪk�|���h�ơA�B���Ҫ��Q�q�\�b��a�Q�q���W�C
���D�i�B�Ҳ�o�ӥX�������F�Ҥw�����v¡�F�o�q�W�̥D�n���|�����X�M�F�v���ˤf�A�N�Y�ԫn�y�����y�����٤H�M�H�x�褤�嬰���y���~�٤H��������ߡC�~�٤H�֦��F�v�D���v���F�b�@���A�p��(���y)���ƪ����D�w���A�O�F�vij�D�����ߡC
�b�g�٤W�ӻ��A�x�W���T���{���Y�������D�C�����]�S�����ۡA�P����ҹL�h���F�����P�A�������X�֪��Ȧ�|��U�̮z�����c�C�L�û��L�N��Q�M�x�W�v�����~�����e����C��������̵M�Q�L�ױ���A���g�٪����D�w���O�|���|�ﵽ�A�ӬO��ɧﵽ�M�ﵽ���ص{�סC
���`�O���ͤ@�Ǹg��ij�D�A���L���S�ݤ��M�O�i�H�A�Ѫ��A�]���x�W���\�h��L�a��@�˦���ظg�٦b�����v���A�@�جO�j�Ѫ��ʳ��ӨS�IJv���]�Dzβ��~�^�A�t�@�جO�s���A�����ѩʪ��A�����y�v���O���]����޲��~�^�C�z�L���s�x�����L�Ӧ����C����M���ɹ�y�J���ꪺ���������A�����y�Dzβ��~�ǵ��ಾ��j�����ӴM�^�;��C
�����ꤣ�|�o�òµ½½}�z��A�_�ʪ�Ӫ��ܥ�����x�W�줤�ꪺ���̪��F�v�߳��@�Ҷq�ר�O�ﳯ�����i�Ҥ�����{�סA�o�¯٫ܧִN����F�A���@�ؤ��T�w�P�]�������}�ӡC�Ʊ����u�۬O(����M�x�W)���䳣�Ýn�����A�[�J�@�ɶT����´(WTO)
�A�[�J��i�à±ï¿½{�����~�v���O����A�Ӥ��O�x�W�C
���⩤���Y�B�z�o�n�ܡH�ܩ��㪺�_��ı�o��n�C���{�b�A�Y�Ϥ���j���̹x�T���N�������ݪ��D��x�W�o�ʾԪ��O�S�����\�Ʊ檺�C�]���o���ױq����è±ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½ï¿½w�q���ӧQ�C
���̪ñ»¡¥L�H�����ؤH���a�A�o�O�@�ئV�_�ʪ��ܵ��N���T���A���@������M�n�L�󤣼�ٱ��i�a�}�������C�������Ón���D�A�b�x�W�H���٨S�dzƦn�����Τ@�e�A�N��Τ@�]�w�ɶ����O�ܤ������C����L�����@���A�Ѫ���_���٦h�A�ҥH�L�L��Ʊ��Ýn�C�C�i�i�C�����M�i�H������n�A���L�b�L�����̪쪺���Ӥ���{���]��t�C
��L�y�b�������`�Ϊ��e��~���{�ä��X��A���L���i�B�O���ئ@�@���C�����@�Ӿ��|�a�I�H�DzΪ������Ӭݳ��O���������I
�@�̵ηs��(��Ķ)�O����j��Fairbank���ߪF�Ȭ�s���X�ݾǪ�
_______________
���23���p�X�߳�
�~318�B520����A�������`�γ̪�A�צ�����ڴC����D�H���C
�u���L�b�~�e�A��ڴC�鴿���ۥH���ت������ɥx�W�j�諸���v�ʵ��G�A�Ҧp�u�x�W���l���Ѧʦ~�ѩ��v�B�u2100�U�H��J���D�s�@���v�K�K�C���X��ɡA����b����ֽפW��������p��X��Ӫ��x�Ѩ��կ�A�}�����C�C
�]�A�ɥN���x�λ��F�g�ٵ��׳���x�W�g�ٰ��D�B�֥|�B�⩤�F�����X�ü{�A�Ʀܹﳯ����ӤH�I�F����]���X��áC
�ɥN���x���ɡA�x�W�L�h�]�����{�F�v�M���A���o�^�I�W���D�ԫo�I�M���P�C1949�~�H�ӥx�W�����F�v����A�\�h����H�泯�����a�ӷs�����A���X�Ӥ�L��A��F�v�����T�w�ʡB�\�h�}�X�o�L�k�I�{���v��䲼�A�Ϊi�ʤ��w�����ĥ����A�o�������Χ��H�j���ұ�C
�ɥN���x��F�g�ٵ��ק��{���A�ð¸¤U�x��x�W�F�ҦX�@���M��[�x���A�n���o���@�H���]�󬰤����C���F�g�ٵ��׻��A��|�Ĭ�i��C�U�U�p�A������~���ߩe���|�e�A���ճ����H�n�হ�~�A�s�F�����U�j�U�աB�f�|���@�~�A����K�����n���ӤH����]������I�F�R�����T�w�ʡA���H�f�f�ӹꤣ�ܤ��P�C
�֥|��ػP�_�A�O��ڹ�x�I�F�H�ߥt�@���j���СC�ɥN���x��
�z���W�����c���ڲK�f���i�A����N���H�ӥ~��w�X���ʻ������F���ÓY�֥|���ءA�s�F���S�����X������N��סB�L�k�O��
2005�~��ç¤�¿½Ê¹q�A��ڧ��H�N���F���A�뤣�H�����C
�g�ٰ��D�A�O��F�����{���t�@�D�ԡC�ɥN���x����A�x�W����
�޲��~�w����ڥ��������A�Dzβ��~����󤣨��n��A�����a�Ϸs���Ϊūβv���F90%�A���~���M���s�a�v�T�Ȧ�ê²�¿½~��A����
���c���}�겣�O���Ӹg�ٵo�i�̤j���~�C
���F�g�ٵ��ק󪽨��A���D�����i�{�󦨼�����É��d�B�߱�
�u�u�F�v��ҼҦ��A�_�h�x�W�g���u�իܥi��b�F�¦M�������i�p�ɡF����O�H���Ī����D�ƽd�ҡA�Ϧ���گ��`�C
__________
�q�i�J�Q�װϡr
|